That's right kiddies...HEEEE'sss BBACCKKK!!!
Ok the news as we know it right now...
The storm still has not hit the Yucatan... It is sitting on top of Cozumel, where it has been for about the last four hours or so...
Cancun has been experiencing unrelenting hurricane force winds for eight hours or more... along with a lot of rain. The storm's last tracks may be indicating a turn north...along the coast of the Yucatan penisula... If that is the case it may not go ashore at all. We can only wait and see. If it is moving north, albeit slowly, it may be signalling the expected turn to the northeast. Once it makes that turn it should accelerate, with the help of upper level winds, and those same winds will hinder any intensification. That being said it could still hit here as a Cat-1 to Cat-3. I don't expect it to be any stronger than that.
The National Hurricane Center has moved the center of probability north to around Naples, for initial shore impact. One good thing about the NHC forecast line, the storm almost never sticks to this line, so the safest place to be is on the line or outside of the cone of probabilty. That is if you believe a direct hit has any meaning. I don't. Not anymore.
Here is a little test. Go and tell someone who has been side swiped by a hurricane or tornado (my childhood), or someone who took a direct hit from a Cat 1 storm or and F1 tornado, that it could have been worse. Then report back here how your jaw feels. I get so tired of people saying " OH, it was only a Cat 1, ...No problem!!" or "Looks like you'll get off easy, it is only Cat 1!" All those in that catagory can go stuff themselves. Can you prepare for it,..Yes!!! Does it help? Sometimes yes,...sometimes it makes no difference whatsoever. Every situation is different, every storm is different.
Ok I guess I should hammer my favorite local TV network, NBC-2.
On the noon broadcast they made an attempt to "define" mandatory evacuation. [NBC-2 rant mode on]
It was....laughable. Really these people need to devote a segment, say three mintues or so, about how all this mandatory stuff is crap.
The current definition is (according to NBC-2): "mandatory evacuation means that you will be on your own and at risk if anything bad happens..." Really??? You gotta be kinding me!!! Forget that the courts have already ruled that no one has the right to expect help from police, fire, 911 or anybody else, so many times that they could fill a phonebook with the rulings! Forget that my property rights make your "mandatory" evacuation unenforceable. They fianlly did admit that it also means that "if" you abandon your property (like on the barrier islands or Fort Myers Beach) you will not be allowed back until the "authorities" give the ok.
Ok, NBC-2 is part of the problem, I know that. I can't expect them to stop being a lap dog just because peoples lives and property are at stake. I guess I am just a cold, hard, callouse bastard.
Oh, and could you guys stop playing with all the 'cool' features you have on your new doppler software and just show me where the damn weather is? Christ!!! The clutter from all the doo-dads is screwing up being able to see where it is rainin' and where it ain't!!
Ok, [/nbc-2 rant mode off]
Anyway, they have an evacuation in progress of collier county communities that are south and west of US41. Fort Myers beach is also 'suggested' to evacuate...
Ok.. that's all I have for now...more as it comes avaiable...